POWERED DOWN

It was the first time in five years the city had experienced such a power crisis. The power company contacted major electricity consumers in the city to warn them to be prepared for supply reductions and outages. 　

In the provincial capital of Changsha, the lights at night sightseeing spots went out, including at the Changsha Railway Station and Juzizhou Bridge. The city became quiet. Meanwhile, provinces such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Shaanxi, as well as Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, released restrictions on power usage and industrial production. 　

Hunan Development and Reform Commission released a directive in early December requiring public institutions, corporations and households to ration their use of electricity starting from December 8. Residents were asked not to use energy-consuming appliances such as water heaters and space heaters during peak hours. 　

“Tertiary industry and households generally account for about 35 percent of maximum electricity loads across the country. Hunan, however, was close to 50 percent,” Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, told NewsChina. 　

Yuan said that Hunan’s electricity demand peaks in summer and winter. Summers are hot and humid, while winter temperatures average 4-7 C. Most buildings do not have central heat or air conditioning, leaving residents reliant on space heaters and air conditioner units. In the winter of 2019, cold fronts swept across most of China, pushing electricity use in the province to a new high. One of the major challenges for Hunan’s grid is snow and frost on power lines. Yuan said if the lines do not thaw quickly, large-scale blackouts are likely. 　

In January 2008, the worst snowstorms in 50 years hit much of southern China, affecting the lives of more than 32.8 million people. The grids in the provinces of Hunan and Guizhou were severely damaged, resulting in mass blackouts in 18 counties. 　

According to a Hunan Daily report, the Disaster Prevention Center of the State Grid in Hunan predicted the province’s power lines would likely be coated with ice until spring 2021. 　

“Hunan Province will suffer from electricity supply shortages this winter no matter the weather,” Chen Hao, spokesperson for State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company, said during a video conference on December 2. 　

He added that after analyzing electric usage of the first 11 months of 2020, Hunan would exceed its electricity load and consumption limits through early 2021. Work resumption in summer after the Covid-19 epidemic was largely under control in China also ratcheted up electricity demand. In November, Hunan’s imports and exports rose by 40 percent year-on-year. 

Official statistics show that from January to November 2020, electricity use in Hunan amounted to 172.3 billion kilowatts, up 2.3 percent on a yearly basis. 　

“By the end of 2019, Hunan’s installed capacity reached 466.9 million kilowatts, of which 51 percent was generated by non-fossil fuels. Over the past four years, only 8.21 million kilowatts were added to the general installed capacity in Hunan, up 4.7 percent year-on-year, far below the national average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent,” Ye Chun, deputy director of the Industrial Planning, Environment and Resources under the China Electricity Council, told NewsChina. 　

He said that for the additional 8.21 million kilowatts, hydroelectric power accounted for 16.85 percent, wind and solar power accounted for 82.15 percent, and coal accounted for only 1 percent. 　

Hunan’s plentiful water resources and hydroelectric stations are crucial to generating power in summer, with an installed capacity of 16.1 million kilowatts. 　

“Hunan is in the dry season now, so hydroelectric stations have a limited role in bolstering electricity generation,” Ye said. 　

According to a manager at a small hydroelectric station on a tributary of the Lishui River in Hunan, rainfall was abundant in November but by December, the hydroelectric station could not generate electricity. In January, he added, he could do nothing except repairs and maintenance. 

“Small hydroelectric stations are heavily dependent on the weather. Power generation hinges on rainfall and mountain springs,” he told our reporter. 　

Wind and solar power generation saw rapid growth in Hunan in recent years, accounting for 16 percent of the total installed capacity in the province. When winter approaches, however, the supply of electricity from renewable sources is unstable. A professor at the College of Electrical and Information Engineering at Hunan University said the winter peak coincides with the worst time for wind and solar power generation. “The imbalance between supply and demand worsens in winter,” he told NewsChina on condition of anonymity. 　

In comparison, thermal power generation is relatively stable. “As of the end of 2019, thermal accounted for over 60 percent of power generation in Hunan. It is the main source of power despite its declining proportion in recent years. It secures baseload power,” Ye said. 　

In late 2019, two coal-fueled plants, Yueyang Power Station and Baoqing Power Station in Hunan, suspended operations due to a risk of failure after operating at maximum capacity for an extended period. This already cut electricity output by 1.02 million kilowatts. To make matters worse, Hunan State Grid disclosed that coal reserves in the province for electricity generation dropped by 18.5 percent year-on-year in late November. 　

The problem for Hunan is that more than 80 percent of thermal coal in Hunan is imported from other regions and provinces, including Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Each year, Hunan takes delivery of 60 to 70 million tons of coal from other provinces. 　

Hunan is not the only area affected. Since mid-December 2020, the provinces of Jiangxi and Zhejiang also restricted electricity use. Zeng said that the electricity shortfall in Hunan mainly derived from structural problems in energy distribution. “A most noticeable characteristic is that electricity shortages occurred in peak hours, for example, a specific period in a specific season,” he said. “It is a structural electricity shortage.” 　

Times of peak load in summer and winter see power shortages, and in off-peak hours, there is a glut. By referring to a structural electricity shortage, Zeng indicated that more scientific management of the generation and distribution of electricity at the provincial and even national level is required. 　

In the summers of 2018 and 2019, many cities in the provinces of Shandong, Hunan, Hubei, Zhejiang, Henan and Jiangsu witnessed record electricity use due to heat waves, with heavy demand for air conditioning pushing the demand for power. At the national level, however, regional structural problems do not necessarily mean there are enormous shortages of power. According to statistics from the China Electricity Council, China’s total installed power-generating capacity amounted to 2 billion kilowatts by the end of 2019, the biggest in the world for many years. 　

“Generally speaking, electricity load and consumption peak in summer and winter. As a result, there are two critical periods in the supply and use of electricity throughout the year,” Ye Chun said. 　

In recent years, China has been adjusting its energy structure, aiming to increase the share of greener energy and reduce the proportion of fossil-fuel energy by 15 percent in 2020 and 25 percent in 2030. Wind, solar and nuclear electricity generation will play an increasingly significant role in reaching the goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. 　

Ye told the reporter that China has diversified its energy sources in recent years. Thermal power now accounts for 60 percent of electricity generation and the proportion is declining. Hydroelectric power accounts for 17.8 percent, wind and solar power account for 20.6 percent and gas and nuclear account for 4.5 percent and 2.4 percent. 　

Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at North China Electric Power University, said that China’s power generation capacity has become more volatile after wind and photovoltaic generation were added to the overall power grid. For example, when there is extreme smog or wind, photovoltaic power stations are unable to generate electricity. 

“It’s a major test to the power grid. This is just the beginning and more challenges loom large,” he said.