Northern Exposure

The analysis was released on August 3 by the National Climate Center (NCC) affiliated to the China Meteorological Administration. The NCC is responsible for monitoring climate change and extreme weather events while forecasting meteorological disasters for precautionary measures since it was established in 1995. As early as February, the NCC issued an initial warning, predicting that multitudes of strong extreme weather events would affect the country. 　

Chao Qingchen, director-general of the NCC and co-chair of the Global Climate Observing System Study Group, has long been involved in the negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the past few years, she has been calling for growing social awareness of extreme weather events while building a climate-resilient society, and adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change. 　

“The casualties of the disasters are too overwhelming to allow us to think that we are fortunate enough to stay safe,” Chao warned in an interview with NewsChina after the storm. The key to building a climate resilient city, she stressed, is to be “highly aware of and serious about the natural disasters and their severe consequences as a result of climate change,” and improve data-sharing and coordination between different departments on forecasting and pre-warning of possible disasters in urban areas. She proposed that laws and regulations on climate mitigation should be amended, which means reducing climate change by decreasing the amount of greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere, and adapting urban and rural areas to the new realities of extreme weather events. 　

NewsChina: What trends do you observe for extreme precipitation events in China? In the context of climate change, will China become more prone to extreme rainstorms? 　

Chao Qingchen: The frequency and degree of extremely huge precipitation events have increased across our country since the start of this century. Theoretically, when the temperature increases by 1 C, atmospheric water content grows by 7 percent. Over the past few years, even though there hasn’t been a notable change in total precipitation, its intensity per hour has increased dramatically. Simply put, if in the past we tended to experience more light rain [over a longer period], now we get much more torrential rain [over a shorter time]. 　

Geographically, strong precipitation, which occurred more often in the south of the country, is now increasing in the north. For instance, the latest rainstorm in the north is not only a result of seasonal rains that usually fall between late July and early August, but also due to Typhoon Doksuri. Over the past few years, it has been increasingly obvious that typhoons are starting to track northward. This has brought a higher probability of strong precipitation in the north. 　

However, habituated to frequent droughts, infrastructure in the north is vulnerable to strong precipitation. For example, compacted ground surfaces, lack of permeable ground surfaces [due to urbanization] and the loose network of canals and rivers are not able to cope with the destruction wrought by extreme rainstorms. Amid rapid urban development, the underground drainage system, which is essential for urban flood discharge, is inadequate even if it’s been upgraded. It can’t relieve disasters in overpopulated living conditions. With dense populations, buildings and other facilities, cities are surrounded by humid heat waves, which escalate the frequency and degree of rainstorms. Northern cities will face the risk of higher exposure and vulnerability to heavy precipitation. 　

Based on our forecast models, we think precipitation in China will see an obvious upward trend. From 2026 to 2045, Beijing, Tianjin and cities in Hebei Province are projected to experience more rain in summer and in terms of annual average. There will be more strong precipitation events, some of which may last for five consecutive days. There will be an increase in the number of rainy, moderately rainy and heavy rain days. Torrential rains will expand to more places that are characterized by urban sprawl. 　

NC: How would you evaluate local governments’ forecasting and precautionary measures during the storm? What should be improved? 　

CQ: The forecasting of the rainstorm in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province this time was good enough for its accuracy in its timing, degree and regional scope. In Beijing, the alarm was issued two days in advance and the red alerts were updated in the ensuing days. Residents in areas likely to be affected were well informed with alert messages about the possible disaster and dangerous places. 　

But this does not mean we are able to make accurate forecasts every time. This rainstorm, which was the strongest in the 140 years since meteorological records began, is an extreme case in Beijing. Scientifically, the difficulty in forecasting and ability to issue warnings of extreme weather in advance is a global problem. We don’t have many historical records of extreme precipitation. The mechanisms by which each case of extreme precipitation is formed are different. Factors that could cause disasters, including the multi-level interaction of meteorological systems, terrains and urban underlying surfaces, vary in each case. There are common rules and uniqueness for systematic scientific analyses. 　

By and large, our knowledge about extreme weather events still needs improving. And we need to be more precise and provide more details on forecasting the intensity, scope and length of time of precipitation. In addition, more time is needed for residents to get prepared. To achieve this, breakthroughs are needed in many technologies.　

But weather forecasting is not the only weakness. Coordination and data sharing among different departments is another weak link. For instance, because of the different underground drainage systems and anti-flood facilities along rivers, the same amount of precipitation may have different effects in different streets and communities. So forecasts should not only indicate the possible level of precipitation, but also integrate hydrological data, disaster statistics and the designs of underground drainage networks to make a comprehensive “disaster-based” forecast. Coordinating this will involve different departments with different data, which is hard to share right now due to different standards [each uses to collect data]. Proper warning forecasts and emergency measures to deal with calamities caused by extreme meteorological events are not possible without coordination among different departments and good governance of cities. 　

Another big problem this latest storm event revealed in North China is that residents in the north are concerned less than their southern counterparts about the danger of heavy precipitation. I’ve seen lots of northern villagers who historically have had to deal with drought underestimate the severity of upcoming rainstorms and their consequences. This is a problem in many cities in the north even after they were deluged by several torrential rainstorms in recent years. The rainstorms this time will alarm northern urban residents and officials again. But no one can say they will be well-prepared to deal with the next heavy precipitation event. 

CQ: Based on the trend from past to present, meteorological agencies should provide comprehensive risk evaluations on rainstorm-inflicted disasters. Their evaluations should be taken into consideration by other government agencies involved in urban planning, city management and construction of key projects. For example, drainage systems, urban river courses and electricity grids have to withstand extreme weather, and outdoor billboards should not be installed in places where the wind blows most heavily. 　

The whole process involves comprehensive coordination among meteorological, housing, emergency management and water resources agencies, to name just a few. Over the past few years, there has not been nearly enough systematic coordination among them for extensive city planning and major urban construction projects. There’s always a temporary positive effect in the aftermath of natural disasters, but it never lasts long. Of course, this level of coordination needs huge financial, human and material investment. Many northern Chinese cities are economically backward, which restricts their expenditure. They are loath to spend much of their budget on mitigating climate change, especially when they perceive they do not face any imminent natural disasters. 　

Following the recent rainstorm in the north, many cities should revise their planning standards to cope with severe weather conditions and for urban flood prevention. The classification of precipitation levels varies in different regions. In many old cities, drainage systems were designed to deal with the heaviest rain recorded every one or two years, or even every few months. Even new cities’ drainage is designed to cope with a once-in-a-year or once-in-two-year rainfall. But many natural disasters now are the most severe seen in the last 30-50 years. Therefore, the gap between the current urban design and reality gets even wider. 　

There is no one-size-fits-all policy. First and foremost, a city has to survey its own risk of natural disasters. Then it can recheck its drainage systems and improve facilities that are not up to code. For instance, we need to upgrade underground facilities by increasing their anti-flood capacities. The first nationwide comprehensive survey on the risks of natural disasters was launched in 2020. But the recommendations based on the survey need to be extended to urban management practices. 　

NC: The main thrust of what you are proposing is to highlight climate evaluation in urban planning. Climate evaluation is included in feasibility studies of urban construction projects. How well has it been implemented? 　

CQ: All I know is that the job isn’t good enough. In my view, climate resilience feasibility studies should have at least been integrated into the planning and management of megacities. It would be better to list big cities’ major plans and projects, such as airports and railways, where feasibility evaluation should be compulsory. So far, such studies depend on contractors’ willingness. In some projects today, climate resilience evaluation is just part of the environmental impact assessment, and many don’t treat it very seriously. Some cities have done it well, and some have not. I propose to regulate these evaluations at the national level. 　

In addition, climate resilience feasibility studies have been generally based on data of natural disasters over the past few decades, but climate change won’t develop in a linear trajectory. Evaluations should be based on climate models to detect potential risks. Despite the uncertainties of the forecast, it can at least be an important reference. 　

In the wake of the flood in Zhuozhou, Hebei Province, the entire city is in need of a holistic risk evaluation on potential meteorological calamities. A systematic and in-depth analysis is necessary to review the problems that emerged from the emergency rescue, the sub-standard infrastructure, and the risks and impacts in case another similar storm comes. Particular attention should be paid to rebuilding affected communities with building materials resilient enough to stand up to the rainstorms. Decisions on whether to strengthen existing buildings or relocate residents who live in high-risk areas must be based on comprehensive analysis. 　

NC: When an area experiences a severe storm, government and public attention often focuses on big cities. But there are many vulnerable groups in less-developed villages and towns where emergency response and post-disaster recovery are much slower due to lack of resources. How would you comment on the inequity when we are addressing climate change? 　

CQ: Climate change may have a bigger impact on suburban and rural areas than big cities, although these capture everyone’s attention. Sometimes, outlying areas are inundated with floods discharged from big cities to protect urban areas. Inhabited largely by vulnerable populations of the elderly, children, people with chronic diseases and disabled people, those villages and towns do not have anywhere enough agency to draw attention to their plight. Therefore, inequity must be underscored when governments make policies to address climate change. 　

During the recent rainstorm, villages and towns such as those in Beijing’s suburban Mentougou District suffered great losses. Many houses built on mountains were washed away. After the disaster, the limited budgets of township governments won’t be enough for recovery and restoration. I suggest that a special national fund be established in partnership with non-public assistance providers to support vulnerable groups with rescues and compensation for vulnerable groups affected by extreme weather events.