The protective lines that prevent strategic conflict between China and the US are at serious risk, a new article in China's Journal of International Security Studies warns. The authors, Da Wei, director of the US Studies institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, and Zhang Zhaoxi, a master's student at the University of International Relations, say the existing tacit consensus between the two powers is weakening, and that the relationship could seriously devolve.
Nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence are the foremost lines of defense against strategic clashes, Wei and Zhaoxi argue, as they have been for the last four decades. But, they say, the tacit consensus that China would integrate into the US-led international order and that the US would maintain a "contact" strategy with China has been severely weakened over the last few years. That means there's a genuine risk Sino-US relations could deteriorate to the level that US-Russian relations have sunk to since Russia's absorption of Crimea in 2014.
Finding a new way to deter conflict depends on several factors, according to the authors. The first is a balance of power in the Asia-Pacific. The second is China's relationships with US allies in the region. The third is how the two powers treat their differences over political values.
Before the two build a new strategic consensus, political leaders on both sides need to test each other's boundaries. China and the US should be more tolerant of the "strategic games and competitions" between them, which are inherent in great power politics, and refrain from exaggerating the other side's actions or seeing them as strategic challenges.