Mild developments are expected in the relationship between US and Taiwan in the following three or four years, particularly in terms of trade, high-profile interactions and “military security”, but a major change is still impossible at the moment, said Yan Anlin, deputy director of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), writing for World Outlook, a semimonthly magazine run by SIIS.
As trade frictions rise between the US and Chinese mainland, it’s an inevitable choice for Taiwan to enhance trade and investment relations with the US, Yan said. But difficulties are foreseeable as the two sides still lack common ground, according to Yan. While Taiwan hopes to start research and talks that lead to a free trade pact, the US is only ready to focus on reducing the trade deficit and removing obstacles for US products like pork to enter the Taiwan market.
The military relations between the two sides are likely to be enhanced in the form of greater arms sales by the US to Taiwan as well as regular exchanges of information and official visits, according to Yan. But the connection is not likely to go much deeper given the agreements between the Chinese mainland and the US, he said.
The US is expected to offer the island stronger support in its efforts to participate in the activities run by international organizations, especially those designed to serve particular functions and hosted by multilateral organizations, Yan said. This will add to the competition between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland on international occasions and cause the mainland to face greater pressure in diplomatic practices involving the presence of the island, he said.
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