Dialogue alone can hardly resolve the disputes between China and the US as the complexity of the bilateral relationship escalates, said Zhao Minghao, researcher at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies, writing for news site
The Paper.
The Sino-US relationship has been more stable than expected in the past few months, as US President Donald Trump has relied on China for solving the North Korea nuclear issue and realizing his economic goals, Zhao said. But risks are equally notable, he noted.
The Trump government has vowed to put extreme pressure on North Korea, ready to intensify sanctions and launch military attacks when necessary, according to Zhao. Trump seeks equal commitment from China to create such pressures, expecting China to completely cut off the oil supply to North Korea and punish citizens who illegally do business with the country, Zhao said. But apparently China wouldn’t submit to US pressures, he added, as China looks to solve the issue through peaceful talks.
In order to realize his goal, Trump tries to tie the Sino-US trade dispute to the nuclear issue, promising fewer trade pressures if China were to further pressure North Korea, according to Zhao. But if China’s pressures on North Korea fail to gain the effect Trump has expected, he said, the US is likely to take revengeful actions regarding major issues such as trade, the South China Sea and Taiwan.
In terms of the South China Sea, the Trump administration appears to be rather self-restrained at present, but China still has to keep an ear to the ground, Zhao said. Trump is scheduled to visit Vietnam and attend the APEC economic leaders’ meeting in November, so the US is very likely to whip up some hype over the South China Sea issue in the following months, he said.
In the coming years, the Trump government is expected to strengthen its military deployment in the South China Sea and adopt tougher attitudes over emergencies in the region, he said.
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