The solution to North Korea’s nuclear issue would require China to “think outside the box,” as existing approaches are expected to have a limited or even minus effect, said He Fan, professor of economics at Peking University, writing for new media platform Northeast Asia Reviews.
Taking economic approaches as an example, He said China is faced with two options at present, namely to either steer North Korea further toward reform and opening-up or impose stricter sanctions on it.
The former approach would require China to promise North Korea more preferential policies, He said, suggesting that China may include North Korea in the Belt and Road initiative and offer the prospect of bigger investments in exchange for North Korea’s promise of political stability.
Whether this strategy works would depend on how much Kim Jong-un agrees to a market economy and to what extent he believes economic development would legitimize his rule, according to He. He said the introduction by Kim of a simultaneous focus on nuclear and economics into the Workers’ Party constitution likely signals a relaxed attitude toward market economy among North Korea leadership. But since North Korea’s rigid army-first policy is unlikely to give priority to economic issues, he said, preferential economic policies don’t necessarily create a more cooperative North Korea.
In terms of economic sanctions, the fact that both the UN and US have had limited impact by their actions means that stricter sanctions are needed from China, according to He.
The last resort is likely to be cutting off food and oil supplies to North Korea, he said. But these efforts will likely end up creating only misery for the North Korean public and in a way reinforce Kim’s rule, he said. Even if sanctions were to work, he added, it will take considerable time and still allow North Korea to create long-range missiles.
As none of the existing policies are working effecitvely, China and other countries should think outside the box and resort to unconventional tactics, he suggested. It’s time for the nations involved to carry out a major reform in their North Korea strategies, he noted.